Those high-paid “experts” were wrong yet again

Posted on January 4th, 2015 by admin in Investing, Political Economy, Quant, Scenarios

We love to point out how the “experts” routinely get their predictions wrong, because it’s always useful to stay humble and aware of Mr. Murphy and his flock of Black Swans. So here are some recent results collected by Jason Zweig of Wall St. Journal 30 DEC 2014, summarized in the table.


Prediction in JAN 2014

Result in JAN 2015

The Wall Street Journal’s January 2014 economic forecasting survey

48 of the 49 participating business economists: Yield on 10-YR Treasury note >3% by 12/14, AVG forecast 3.52%

Other than three days in January, the 10-year yield spent the entire year below 3%, and by late December it was around 2.2%

Oil price/BL up to $95 from $92


Fears of Ebola, among other factors, scared investors into knocking stocks down by almost 10% from September to mid-October, analysts and traders raced to declare that the decline had just begun.

Large market decline; the “correction”

Market indexes mostly above 10% gains, with S&P500 15.5% 1-YR gain during 2014

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